Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 12.901196 15.809966 19.070609 22.974038 27.496323 32.546875 38.589045
2025-03-23 8.939376 12.719812 17.456631 23.725184 31.690630 41.357431 53.846299
2025-03-30 6.378396 10.283731 15.640635 23.304326 33.737454 47.178463 65.497708
2025-04-06 5.226501 9.338077 15.402773 24.618864 37.831564 55.612815 80.791053
2025-04-13 3.661202 7.346741 13.236992 22.784547 37.228799 57.548405 87.436755
2025-04-20 2.980344 6.587979 12.742774 23.240707 39.794361 63.873028 100.304129
2025-04-27 2.493054 6.036419 12.456832 23.921182 42.670035 70.742576 114.252395
2025-05-04 2.137297 5.638578 12.345553 24.826941 45.908870 78.281992 129.511150
2025-05-11 1.795429 5.175346 12.024850 25.304023 48.449467 84.863654 143.636997
2025-05-18 1.451045 4.606138 11.395679 25.132392 49.858610 89.725079 155.354552
2025-05-25 1.111484 3.937415 10.438179 24.213627 49.874320 92.326385 163.662321
2025-06-01 0.870181 3.434795 9.725296 23.646731 50.411386 95.737959 173.324252
2025-06-08 0.595739 2.745003 8.507348 22.029084 49.133079 96.453850 179.403019
2025-06-15 0.497543 2.561619 8.448754 22.821764 52.441088 105.194303 199.101255
2025-06-22 0.371177 2.209245 7.879482 22.418455 53.405607 109.931730 212.416297
2025-06-29 0.326184 2.144129 8.052597 23.693169 57.754486 120.837289 236.534134
2025-07-06 0.208880 1.681716 6.986492 21.915009 55.774079 120.277663 241.122566
2025-07-13 0.168248 1.548434 6.853690 22.357133 58.395113 128.216663 260.680728
2025-07-20 0.138892 1.451945 6.811456 23.016765 61.521768 137.243698 282.499439
2025-07-27 0.117592 1.385606 6.852468 23.894956 65.182971 147.447652 306.785267
2025-08-03 0.094661 1.284361 6.744204 24.357596 67.956406 156.084246 328.589550
2025-08-10 0.070169 1.137960 6.425071 24.191154 69.293621 162.001718 345.703870
2025-08-17 0.046450 0.952303 5.884030 23.300287 68.875282 164.436492 356.538149